London, UK, 16 May 2017
Edison issues outlook on Hurricane Energy (HUR)
Hurricane Energy's 2016/17 drilling programme has significantly increased understanding of the Greater Lancaster Area (GLA) and Greater Warwick Area (GWA) hydrocarbon accumulations. Initial data analysis suggests that the GLA is one large accumulation including the Halifax and Lancaster basement oil discoveries contained between the Westray Fault Zone and Brynhild Fault Zone. RPS resource estimates for Lancaster alone range from 157-1,166mmbbls recoverable (P50 523mmbbls), making it a giant oil field and one of the largest discoveries on the UKCS over the last decade. Incorporating wider GLA and GWA resource is likely to take this figure to upwards of 1bnbbls, 100% owned by Hurricane. Management expects first oil from a Lancaster early production system (EPS) in 2019, with the company looking at equity and debt funding options. We assume a 60/40 equity to debt split in our latest Lancaster NAV of 102p/share, rising to 134p/share including risked Halifax/Lincoln upside.
Our Lancaster NAV stands at 102p/share for Lancaster and 134p/share including risked resource at Halifax and Lincoln. On the basis of Lancaster alone, we believe the market is implying a long-term oil price of sub-50$/bbl Brent.
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