Hardman & Co: 1H'18 preview: costs 1H-weighted, revenue 2H
We preview the 1H'18 results due in early August. The 18 June trading update confirmed trading was consistent with FY guidance, but we think investors should recognise the split between 1H and 2H. We forecast that NSF will deliver 46% of FY'18 revenue in 1H'18 and 46% of impairments, but 50% of costs and 49% of finance costs; thus, we estimate 18% of group 2018 PBT in 1H'18 and 82% in 2H'18. The revenue split reflects business seasonality and payback for investment. Impairments reflect IFRS9 taking more provisions upfront when loans are added. Costs reflect the timing of investments in each division, operational normalisation in EL, and guarantor loans synergies. We make no changes to 2018 estimates.
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